Thursday 6 October 2011

Black Swans, risk and broiler chicken

You might be wondering where am going with this....what with the weird title. I must confess I wasn’t the best in school when it came to that section in English exam they called summary writing, the title could have been a one word or even a simple sentence like..Kennedys idle thoughts...or something close to that. But I must also say that Executives Summaries that i draft are impressive. I have wondering how come an organization can be OK today and tomorrow its no more. How come the world was surprised by the spectacular fall of Lehman brothers, Triton, Barings Bank... (Remember Nick Leeson) amongst others. Is it not the same surprise that a broiler experiences after six weeks? After six weeks of lavish feeding by the farmer i can only imagine the shock the broiler goes through one morning when a KenChick trucker packs outside the farm ready to transport the broiler ...in its meat form. in a broilers world such an event is unthinkable before the end of the six weeks..Actually it’s a highly improbable event...but how about the consequences...very high..Am sure you agree

How is your organization doing today...Am sure it’s doing fantastic..Will it be around tomorrow (am not talking about going concern here)..am sure you are 99% sure it will be..What if the outcome is the other way round? Can you tell whether it will happen..Maybe not (based on past info)...what can you do about it (may be risk management)..Will it work...i think it should...what am i saying...don’t be a broiler chicken....fraud can wipe out your business!! Enough said

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